The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has formally retired the International Passenger Survey as the backbone of its long-term international migration (LTIM) estimates, releasing a 23 April research update that details the move to Home Office visa records, travel manifests and Department for Work & Pensions data. The change means migration figures will now be based on observed entries and exits rather than travellers’ stated intentions. Since 2019 the ONS has piloted alternative methodologies, but the April 2026 update embeds the new approach across all migrant cohorts: non-EU visa holders, EU+ nationals and returning British citizens. Future iterations will also model people with Indefinite Leave to Remain, overstayers and those on ‘3C leave’ while in-country applications are pending. For mobility managers this shift matters because visa issuance—rather than survey extrapolation—will drive headline migration numbers that influence salary thresholds, shortage-occupation lists and forecasting of public-service capacity. Accurate counts of sponsored workers and their dependants should make it easier for the Home Office to calibrate annual allocation caps or fee levels without the lag inherent in survey methods. The ONS will publish its first fully-fledged LTIM series under the new regime in May, and is seeking corporate feedback on data usability.
![ONS Confirms Switch to Visa and Admin Data for Migration Estimates]()
Organisations looking to navigate this evolving landscape can turn to VisaHQ for practical assistance. Through its United Kingdom portal (https://www.visahq.com/united-kingdom/), VisaHQ consolidates the latest Home Office guidance, runs eligibility checks for every visa type and streamlines application submissions—tools that help HR and mobility teams respond quickly to policy tweaks driven by the ONS’s new evidence base.
Multinationals may find that HR analytics tools plugging into the Integrated Data Service can benchmark mobile workforces against more granular nationality and sector breakdowns. In practical terms, companies sponsoring workers should expect tighter cross-checks between visa grants and PAYE records as datasets converge. Meanwhile, policy lobby groups are likely to cite the refreshed statistics in debates over the earnings threshold for Skilled Worker visas and the proposed ‘earned settlement’ route.
Organisations looking to navigate this evolving landscape can turn to VisaHQ for practical assistance. Through its United Kingdom portal (https://www.visahq.com/united-kingdom/), VisaHQ consolidates the latest Home Office guidance, runs eligibility checks for every visa type and streamlines application submissions—tools that help HR and mobility teams respond quickly to policy tweaks driven by the ONS’s new evidence base.
Multinationals may find that HR analytics tools plugging into the Integrated Data Service can benchmark mobile workforces against more granular nationality and sector breakdowns. In practical terms, companies sponsoring workers should expect tighter cross-checks between visa grants and PAYE records as datasets converge. Meanwhile, policy lobby groups are likely to cite the refreshed statistics in debates over the earnings threshold for Skilled Worker visas and the proposed ‘earned settlement’ route.
