Research released on 17 February by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco finds that the sharp **decline in unauthorized immigrant inflows since March 2024 is measurably damping employment growth**, especially in construction and manufacturing.(investing.com)
Economists Daniel Wilson and Xiaoqing Zhou tracked local labor-market data against county-level estimates of unauthorized immigrant worker flows (UIWF). Areas with the steepest drop in UIWF had the largest slow-downs in payroll expansion, suggesting that immigration enforcement policies enacted under President Trump’s second term are now feeding directly into labor shortages.
![Fed Study Links Slump in Unauthorized Immigration to Slower U.S. Job Growth]()
Organizations looking for compliant ways to offset these shortages can turn to VisaHQ, whose digital platform streamlines U.S. work-permit and visa processing for employers and foreign talent alike. The site (https://www.visahq.com/united-states/) offers up-to-date guidance on evolving requirements, fees and timelines, enabling HR teams to secure the right authorization quickly when traditional pipelines tighten.
For global-mobility planners, the paper provides fresh quantitative evidence that talent gaps are widening just as higher H-1B fees and tighter state-level restrictions (e.g., the recent Texas H-1B pause) bite. Companies dependent on craft labor for capital projects or housing developments may face longer delivery timelines and higher costs.
The authors caution that unless immigrant flows stabilize, pressure will remain on wage inflation and housing supply. Policymakers, meanwhile, are likely to seize on the findings either to justify stricter controls (“Americans first”) or to argue for targeted visa expansions (e.g., a sector-specific guest-worker scheme). Mobility teams should monitor the debate; any new carve-outs could open alternative pathways for critical skills.
Economists Daniel Wilson and Xiaoqing Zhou tracked local labor-market data against county-level estimates of unauthorized immigrant worker flows (UIWF). Areas with the steepest drop in UIWF had the largest slow-downs in payroll expansion, suggesting that immigration enforcement policies enacted under President Trump’s second term are now feeding directly into labor shortages.
Organizations looking for compliant ways to offset these shortages can turn to VisaHQ, whose digital platform streamlines U.S. work-permit and visa processing for employers and foreign talent alike. The site (https://www.visahq.com/united-states/) offers up-to-date guidance on evolving requirements, fees and timelines, enabling HR teams to secure the right authorization quickly when traditional pipelines tighten.
For global-mobility planners, the paper provides fresh quantitative evidence that talent gaps are widening just as higher H-1B fees and tighter state-level restrictions (e.g., the recent Texas H-1B pause) bite. Companies dependent on craft labor for capital projects or housing developments may face longer delivery timelines and higher costs.
The authors caution that unless immigrant flows stabilize, pressure will remain on wage inflation and housing supply. Policymakers, meanwhile, are likely to seize on the findings either to justify stricter controls (“Americans first”) or to argue for targeted visa expansions (e.g., a sector-specific guest-worker scheme). Mobility teams should monitor the debate; any new carve-outs could open alternative pathways for critical skills.
