Australia’s net-overseas-migration (NOM) numbers are becoming a moving target. In an opinion analysis published on 25 January 2026, former Immigration deputy-secretary Abul Rizvi argues that Treasury’s December 2025 Population Statement – which leaves the official NOM forecast unchanged at 260 000 for 2025-26 and 225 000 for 2026-27 – ignores a raft of new visas and policy tweaks that will keep arrival numbers higher for longer. Among them: a 25 000-place increase in higher-education student planning levels, the launch of MATES visas for Indian professionals, the first Pacific Engagement and Tuvalu visa ballots, and record grants in the temporary-skilled stream.
Rizvi points out that arrivals actually fell to 305 600 in 2024-25 after the post-pandemic surge, but he believes Treasury is under-estimating how quickly numbers will rebound once universities and employers adjust to the new settings. He projects NOM of roughly 290 000 in 2025-26 – about 30 000 above Treasury’s figure – and warns that long-term assumptions of a return to pre-COVID averages of 225-235 000 are “probably 50 000 too low” unless the next government embarks on further tightening.
For global-mobility managers the debate matters. Headcount planning, housing allowances and talent-sourcing decisions for 2026-27 could all be thrown off if Treasury’s baseline proves too conservative. Employers relying on skilled-temporary or graduate visa holders may face unexpected competition for capped permanent-residence places, while state-nomination programmes are already revising their occupation lists in anticipation of demand exceeding the 20 350 skilled-state allocations announced this week.
![Treasury’s migration forecasts questioned as policy shifts accelerate]()
Amid this volatility, organisations and individual travellers can simplify the administrative maze by using VisaHQ. The platform aggregates the latest Australian visa requirements—covering student, skilled, business and other streams—and offers end-to-end application support plus real-time status tracking. For details, visit https://www.visahq.com/australia/.
Rizvi’s assessment also foreshadows more pressure on processing capacity. With more than 400 000 people on bridging visas and student refusal appeals clogging the AAT, the Department of Home Affairs may need to re-allocate case-officer resources away from low-risk business streams – a scenario corporate-relocation teams should prepare for by ensuring applications are decision-ready and lodged well ahead of assignment start-dates.
Finally, the piece underscores that immigration politics will remain volatile in an election year. Right-wing media continue to campaign for a hard NOM cap below 200 000, while business groups lobby for streamlined skilled pathways. Mobility practitioners should monitor Treasury’s next update – expected in the 2026-27 Budget – and scenario-plan for both looser and tighter outcomes.
Rizvi points out that arrivals actually fell to 305 600 in 2024-25 after the post-pandemic surge, but he believes Treasury is under-estimating how quickly numbers will rebound once universities and employers adjust to the new settings. He projects NOM of roughly 290 000 in 2025-26 – about 30 000 above Treasury’s figure – and warns that long-term assumptions of a return to pre-COVID averages of 225-235 000 are “probably 50 000 too low” unless the next government embarks on further tightening.
For global-mobility managers the debate matters. Headcount planning, housing allowances and talent-sourcing decisions for 2026-27 could all be thrown off if Treasury’s baseline proves too conservative. Employers relying on skilled-temporary or graduate visa holders may face unexpected competition for capped permanent-residence places, while state-nomination programmes are already revising their occupation lists in anticipation of demand exceeding the 20 350 skilled-state allocations announced this week.
Amid this volatility, organisations and individual travellers can simplify the administrative maze by using VisaHQ. The platform aggregates the latest Australian visa requirements—covering student, skilled, business and other streams—and offers end-to-end application support plus real-time status tracking. For details, visit https://www.visahq.com/australia/.
Rizvi’s assessment also foreshadows more pressure on processing capacity. With more than 400 000 people on bridging visas and student refusal appeals clogging the AAT, the Department of Home Affairs may need to re-allocate case-officer resources away from low-risk business streams – a scenario corporate-relocation teams should prepare for by ensuring applications are decision-ready and lodged well ahead of assignment start-dates.
Finally, the piece underscores that immigration politics will remain volatile in an election year. Right-wing media continue to campaign for a hard NOM cap below 200 000, while business groups lobby for streamlined skilled pathways. Mobility practitioners should monitor Treasury’s next update – expected in the 2026-27 Budget – and scenario-plan for both looser and tighter outcomes.
