Twenty-two months after China lifted its outbound-travel restrictions, new ABS figures confirm that Chinese arrivals to Australia have climbed back above one million a year, making China again the second-largest source market by volume and the first by visitor spend. Yet tourism analyst Professor Huang Songshan told the ABC on 24 January 2026 that the 2023-25 catch-up phase may be as good as it gets for a while. Headwinds include slower Chinese GDP growth, a property-market squeeze that is eroding household wealth, and a shift toward short-haul holidays within Asia.
Airlines and hotels are not giving up on the market – Tourism Australia’s ‘Come and Say G’day’ campaign is being rolled out across digital billboards in Shanghai and Shenzhen, and carriers have added Lunar-New-Year charters to Brisbane and Adelaide. But compared with 2019, the average Chinese traveller is staying fewer nights and spending more cautiously, favouring budget retailers over luxury boutiques.
For travellers and organisations grappling with changing documentation rules, online provider VisaHQ offers an easy way to check requirements and lodge visa applications for Australia and dozens of other destinations. Its dedicated Australian portal (https://www.visahq.com/australia/) lets users upload documents, monitor progress in real time and receive expert support—helping tour operators, conference planners and families streamline what can otherwise be a time-consuming process.
![Chinese visitor rebound shows signs of plateau, industry told to temper 2026 expectations]()
For corporate-travel buyers the message is mixed. Seat supply into Melbourne and Sydney during peak January–February periods will remain tight, but conference organisers may need to adjust revenue projections for mainland delegation numbers, particularly for events scheduled after Golden Week in October. Universities recruiting in-country should also budget for a slower recovery in on-campus visits by Chinese parents.
Longer-term, Australian operators are being urged to diversify. Tourism Research Australia forecasts a healthy 7.3 % compound growth from China to 2030, but warns that geopolitical shocks or further currency weakness could derail the outlook. Firms hedging revenue streams with India, South-East Asia and the Middle East are likely to be more resilient.
Meanwhile, Beijing’s decision in November to extend 30-day visa-free entry for Australians to the end of 2026 is seen as a reciprocal nudge for Canberra to fast-track remaining post-pandemic visa-backlogs for Chinese business travellers – something industry groups say would stimulate two-way traffic at relatively low fiscal cost.
Airlines and hotels are not giving up on the market – Tourism Australia’s ‘Come and Say G’day’ campaign is being rolled out across digital billboards in Shanghai and Shenzhen, and carriers have added Lunar-New-Year charters to Brisbane and Adelaide. But compared with 2019, the average Chinese traveller is staying fewer nights and spending more cautiously, favouring budget retailers over luxury boutiques.
For travellers and organisations grappling with changing documentation rules, online provider VisaHQ offers an easy way to check requirements and lodge visa applications for Australia and dozens of other destinations. Its dedicated Australian portal (https://www.visahq.com/australia/) lets users upload documents, monitor progress in real time and receive expert support—helping tour operators, conference planners and families streamline what can otherwise be a time-consuming process.
For corporate-travel buyers the message is mixed. Seat supply into Melbourne and Sydney during peak January–February periods will remain tight, but conference organisers may need to adjust revenue projections for mainland delegation numbers, particularly for events scheduled after Golden Week in October. Universities recruiting in-country should also budget for a slower recovery in on-campus visits by Chinese parents.
Longer-term, Australian operators are being urged to diversify. Tourism Research Australia forecasts a healthy 7.3 % compound growth from China to 2030, but warns that geopolitical shocks or further currency weakness could derail the outlook. Firms hedging revenue streams with India, South-East Asia and the Middle East are likely to be more resilient.
Meanwhile, Beijing’s decision in November to extend 30-day visa-free entry for Australians to the end of 2026 is seen as a reciprocal nudge for Canberra to fast-track remaining post-pandemic visa-backlogs for Chinese business travellers – something industry groups say would stimulate two-way traffic at relatively low fiscal cost.
