Official data released on 20 January 2026 by Japan’s Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism show that only 330,000 mainland Chinese visited Japan in December 2025—down 45 % year-on-year—after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested Tokyo might deploy its Self-Defense Forces if China attempted to seize Taiwan. Beijing quickly issued a travel advisory, cancelled cultural exchange programmes and urged students to consider alternative destinations; major Chinese airlines followed by offering penalty-free refund and re-booking options on Japan routes.
The sudden collapse in what was once Japan’s most lucrative inbound segment is already disrupting airline schedules, hotel occupancies and duty-free revenues. Chinese nationals traditionally account for about one-quarter of Japan’s international arrivals and spend 22 % more per capita than other foreign visitors, according to the Japan National Tourism Organisation. Osaka’s flagship department stores reported a 38 % fall in tax-free sales in December, while Narita Airport says 1,900 China-Japan flights were cancelled last month.
![Chinese Tourist Arrivals to Japan Plunge 45 % Amid Diplomatic Row]()
From a mobility standpoint, the slump complicates regional travel planning for multinationals that use Tokyo and Osaka as Asia-Pacific meeting hubs. Seat inventory on alternative routes—especially to Seoul and Bangkok—is tightening, and airfares to those cities have risen 18 % since November. Employers with China-based staff assigned to Japan also face employee-relations challenges as Beijing’s advisory recommends caution for Chinese residents. Companies are reviewing housing locations, emergency contact protocols and Taiwan-related political-speech guidelines.
For organisations now re-routing personnel or choosing alternative conference venues, VisaHQ can simplify the visa paperwork. The platform’s China section (https://www.visahq.com/china/) provides real-time guidance on entry requirements for dozens of substitute destinations, consolidating forms, consular fees and processing times so travel managers can pivot quickly when geopolitical shocks hit.
Industry bodies in both countries are lobbying for a diplomatic off-ramp. The Japan Tourism Agency has proposed joint marketing campaigns once tensions ease, while China’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism has hinted that its advisory is “temporary.” Yet analysts warn that the issue is tied to deep strategic concerns over Taiwan; any recovery in visitor numbers is therefore likely to be gradual. Mobility managers should continue to budget for volatility and build contingency travel plans that avoid Japan during flashpoints in cross-strait relations.
The sudden collapse in what was once Japan’s most lucrative inbound segment is already disrupting airline schedules, hotel occupancies and duty-free revenues. Chinese nationals traditionally account for about one-quarter of Japan’s international arrivals and spend 22 % more per capita than other foreign visitors, according to the Japan National Tourism Organisation. Osaka’s flagship department stores reported a 38 % fall in tax-free sales in December, while Narita Airport says 1,900 China-Japan flights were cancelled last month.
From a mobility standpoint, the slump complicates regional travel planning for multinationals that use Tokyo and Osaka as Asia-Pacific meeting hubs. Seat inventory on alternative routes—especially to Seoul and Bangkok—is tightening, and airfares to those cities have risen 18 % since November. Employers with China-based staff assigned to Japan also face employee-relations challenges as Beijing’s advisory recommends caution for Chinese residents. Companies are reviewing housing locations, emergency contact protocols and Taiwan-related political-speech guidelines.
For organisations now re-routing personnel or choosing alternative conference venues, VisaHQ can simplify the visa paperwork. The platform’s China section (https://www.visahq.com/china/) provides real-time guidance on entry requirements for dozens of substitute destinations, consolidating forms, consular fees and processing times so travel managers can pivot quickly when geopolitical shocks hit.
Industry bodies in both countries are lobbying for a diplomatic off-ramp. The Japan Tourism Agency has proposed joint marketing campaigns once tensions ease, while China’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism has hinted that its advisory is “temporary.” Yet analysts warn that the issue is tied to deep strategic concerns over Taiwan; any recovery in visitor numbers is therefore likely to be gradual. Mobility managers should continue to budget for volatility and build contingency travel plans that avoid Japan during flashpoints in cross-strait relations.
