Fresh data released on 1 December by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) show that the top seven India-headquartered IT services companies obtained only 4,573 approvals for new (initial-employment) H-1B petitions in U.S. fiscal year 2025. That is a 70 % collapse compared with 2015 and 37 % fewer approvals than in FY 2024. The sharp decline means Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) is now the lone Indian company in the top-five employers for new H-1B workers, with Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Google occupying the first four slots.
Analysts say the slide reflects three converging forces. First, U.S. tech giants have dramatically increased in-country hiring of foreign graduates to fuel artificial-intelligence projects, squeezing the annual 85,000-visa quota. Second, Indian IT vendors continue to expand near-shore delivery centres in Canada, Mexico and Eastern Europe, reducing their dependence on U.S. work-permits. Third, ever-longer U.S. green-card backlogs encourage firms to reserve H-1Bs for renewals of existing staff rather than new hires: the denial rate for *continuing* employment petitions was just 1.9 % in FY 2025.
![Indian IT firms’ new-hire H-1B approvals plunge 37 % in FY 2025, lowest in a decade]()
For Indian service providers the numbers reinforce a strategic shift from labour-arbitrage onsite models to remote delivery and higher-value consulting. Clients may still see short-term project delays if staffing plans relied on fresh H-1B talent, but industry bodies argue the lower visa usage underscores their reduced footprint in the U.S. labour market, a point they hope will counter protectionist rhetoric in Washington.
Indian employees already working in the United States should see little immediate impact—the extension-approval rate for TCS, Infosys and Wipro remained above 93 %. However, aspiring graduates planning overseas assignments through campus hiring will face tougher odds and longer lead times. Employers may need to accelerate L-1 intra-company transfer applications or place recruits in Canada while they await the next H-1B lottery in March 2026.
NFAP’s findings also add weight to calls from Indian industry groups for a bigger or skills-based H-1B quota. Without reform, they warn, India-educated STEM talent will simply follow capital to countries with more open work-visa regimes, eroding America’s innovation edge—and limiting global mobility prospects for Indian professionals who still see the U.S. as the premier destination for high-skill careers.
Analysts say the slide reflects three converging forces. First, U.S. tech giants have dramatically increased in-country hiring of foreign graduates to fuel artificial-intelligence projects, squeezing the annual 85,000-visa quota. Second, Indian IT vendors continue to expand near-shore delivery centres in Canada, Mexico and Eastern Europe, reducing their dependence on U.S. work-permits. Third, ever-longer U.S. green-card backlogs encourage firms to reserve H-1Bs for renewals of existing staff rather than new hires: the denial rate for *continuing* employment petitions was just 1.9 % in FY 2025.
For Indian service providers the numbers reinforce a strategic shift from labour-arbitrage onsite models to remote delivery and higher-value consulting. Clients may still see short-term project delays if staffing plans relied on fresh H-1B talent, but industry bodies argue the lower visa usage underscores their reduced footprint in the U.S. labour market, a point they hope will counter protectionist rhetoric in Washington.
Indian employees already working in the United States should see little immediate impact—the extension-approval rate for TCS, Infosys and Wipro remained above 93 %. However, aspiring graduates planning overseas assignments through campus hiring will face tougher odds and longer lead times. Employers may need to accelerate L-1 intra-company transfer applications or place recruits in Canada while they await the next H-1B lottery in March 2026.
NFAP’s findings also add weight to calls from Indian industry groups for a bigger or skills-based H-1B quota. Without reform, they warn, India-educated STEM talent will simply follow capital to countries with more open work-visa regimes, eroding America’s innovation edge—and limiting global mobility prospects for Indian professionals who still see the U.S. as the premier destination for high-skill careers.
