Chinese outbound travel is poised for another year of double-digit growth, according to new data from marketing-tech firm China Trading Desk. The company projects 165 million-175 million cross-border trips by mainland residents in 2026, about 10 million more than last year.
Analysts attribute the expansion to two macro tail-winds: a stronger renminbi, which has appreciated more than 1 percent against the US dollar since December, and an unprecedented wave of visa-free or visa-light regimes for Chinese passport holders. Over a dozen countries—most recently Türkiye and Russia—have scrapped short-stay visa requirements, while others such as Thailand and Vietnam lowered fees or simplified e-visa procedures.
For travelers who now face an ever-shifting mix of visa waivers, e-visas and traditional stamps, VisaHQ offers an easy way to keep everything straight. Its China portal (https://www.visahq.com/china/) consolidates the latest entry rules, manages paperwork, and even books consular appointments, letting both leisure and corporate clients seize new opportunities without getting bogged down in red tape.
![China’s outbound travel forecast to add 10 million trips in 2026, but Japan visits could halve]()
Not every market will benefit equally. Japan, once China’s second-largest outbound destination, could see arrivals plunge by nearly 50 percent to around 4.8 million amid a continuing political dispute, the survey warns. Rising anti-Japan sentiment on Chinese social media and the weak yen have encouraged travelers to consider “friendlier” Asian alternatives such as South Korea, Vietnam and Thailand, which the report ranks as the top three beneficiaries.
The findings matter for airlines, hotel chains and retailers that depend on Chinese spending power. International carriers are already adjusting winter schedules: Korean Air plans a 14 percent capacity increase on China routes, while some Japanese carriers are quietly redeploying wide-body aircraft to Southeast Asia. Global luxury groups, meanwhile, are leaning on Seoul’s duty-free stores and Bangkok’s new VAT-refund kiosks to capture Chinese spend.
Corporate mobility managers should note that business-visa pipelines remain congested for destinations that still require consular appointments. Early planning and the use of newly introduced multi-entry e-visas—particularly in Vietnam—can mitigate risk. The broader takeaway is clear: demand is back, but it is tilting toward destinations that reciprocate China’s post-pandemic openness.
Analysts attribute the expansion to two macro tail-winds: a stronger renminbi, which has appreciated more than 1 percent against the US dollar since December, and an unprecedented wave of visa-free or visa-light regimes for Chinese passport holders. Over a dozen countries—most recently Türkiye and Russia—have scrapped short-stay visa requirements, while others such as Thailand and Vietnam lowered fees or simplified e-visa procedures.
For travelers who now face an ever-shifting mix of visa waivers, e-visas and traditional stamps, VisaHQ offers an easy way to keep everything straight. Its China portal (https://www.visahq.com/china/) consolidates the latest entry rules, manages paperwork, and even books consular appointments, letting both leisure and corporate clients seize new opportunities without getting bogged down in red tape.
Not every market will benefit equally. Japan, once China’s second-largest outbound destination, could see arrivals plunge by nearly 50 percent to around 4.8 million amid a continuing political dispute, the survey warns. Rising anti-Japan sentiment on Chinese social media and the weak yen have encouraged travelers to consider “friendlier” Asian alternatives such as South Korea, Vietnam and Thailand, which the report ranks as the top three beneficiaries.
The findings matter for airlines, hotel chains and retailers that depend on Chinese spending power. International carriers are already adjusting winter schedules: Korean Air plans a 14 percent capacity increase on China routes, while some Japanese carriers are quietly redeploying wide-body aircraft to Southeast Asia. Global luxury groups, meanwhile, are leaning on Seoul’s duty-free stores and Bangkok’s new VAT-refund kiosks to capture Chinese spend.
Corporate mobility managers should note that business-visa pipelines remain congested for destinations that still require consular appointments. Early planning and the use of newly introduced multi-entry e-visas—particularly in Vietnam—can mitigate risk. The broader takeaway is clear: demand is back, but it is tilting toward destinations that reciprocate China’s post-pandemic openness.
