Australia’s Centre for Population released its 2025 Population Statement on 9 January 2026, projecting net overseas migration (NOM) will fall to 260,000 this calendar year—almost 50 per cent below the record 518,000 people added in 2023 and well down on the revised 2025 estimate of 340,000. Overall population growth is expected to moderate to 1.3 per cent, yet the country will still reach 28 million residents by December.
Officials attribute the sharp deceleration to three forces: the end of post-pandemic pent-up demand; a wave of temporary-visa holders reaching their maximum stay period; and deliberate policy moves—such as stricter student-visa integrity measures, the new Genuine Student test and English-language thresholds—that make entry harder for low-quality applicants. Departures are forecast to exceed half a million for the first time since 2012, as international graduates look offshore amid Australia’s high living costs and limited permanent-residency pathways.
Businesses and individuals navigating these tighter migration settings can streamline their applications by partnering with VisaHQ. The platform tracks policy changes in real time, offers step-by-step assistance for Australian work, study and travel visas, and provides consolidated status updates for HR teams and assignees alike. Learn more at https://www.visahq.com/australia/.
![Government population statement predicts net migration will halve in 2026]()
For employers, the headline figure masks significant churn. The skilled-stream permanent intake remains capped at 190,000, and government rhetoric continues to favour ‘smaller, better-targeted’ migration. That means competition for talent will intensify in sectors such as healthcare, advanced manufacturing and clean energy. Companies reliant on temporary labour—hospitality, agriculture and aged care—face particular pressure as working-holiday makers and students cycle out faster than replacements arrive.
Corporate mobility teams should expect tighter labour-market testing, higher salary benchmarks (the Core Skills Income Threshold rose to AUD 76,515 in July 2025 and will index again on 1 July 2026) and more scrutiny of genuine-employment claims. Relocation budgets may have to stretch to cover partner visas or regional incentives if metropolitan places are curtailed. Conversely, slower population growth eases the squeeze on housing and schools in major cities, potentially softening assignment costs.
The statement also warns that without productivity gains, a smaller migration program could trim GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points a year over the medium term. Treasury says it will revisit skill-shortage lists mid-year and may recommend priority pathways for critical industries. Multinationals should monitor that review and engage with the Joint Standing Committee on Migration, which is currently taking evidence on the value of skilled migration.
Officials attribute the sharp deceleration to three forces: the end of post-pandemic pent-up demand; a wave of temporary-visa holders reaching their maximum stay period; and deliberate policy moves—such as stricter student-visa integrity measures, the new Genuine Student test and English-language thresholds—that make entry harder for low-quality applicants. Departures are forecast to exceed half a million for the first time since 2012, as international graduates look offshore amid Australia’s high living costs and limited permanent-residency pathways.
Businesses and individuals navigating these tighter migration settings can streamline their applications by partnering with VisaHQ. The platform tracks policy changes in real time, offers step-by-step assistance for Australian work, study and travel visas, and provides consolidated status updates for HR teams and assignees alike. Learn more at https://www.visahq.com/australia/.
For employers, the headline figure masks significant churn. The skilled-stream permanent intake remains capped at 190,000, and government rhetoric continues to favour ‘smaller, better-targeted’ migration. That means competition for talent will intensify in sectors such as healthcare, advanced manufacturing and clean energy. Companies reliant on temporary labour—hospitality, agriculture and aged care—face particular pressure as working-holiday makers and students cycle out faster than replacements arrive.
Corporate mobility teams should expect tighter labour-market testing, higher salary benchmarks (the Core Skills Income Threshold rose to AUD 76,515 in July 2025 and will index again on 1 July 2026) and more scrutiny of genuine-employment claims. Relocation budgets may have to stretch to cover partner visas or regional incentives if metropolitan places are curtailed. Conversely, slower population growth eases the squeeze on housing and schools in major cities, potentially softening assignment costs.
The statement also warns that without productivity gains, a smaller migration program could trim GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points a year over the medium term. Treasury says it will revisit skill-shortage lists mid-year and may recommend priority pathways for critical industries. Multinationals should monitor that review and engage with the Joint Standing Committee on Migration, which is currently taking evidence on the value of skilled migration.
