Germany’s population will shrink by up to 10 million people over the next 45 years and one in four residents will be older than 67 by 2035, according to a forecast released on 11 December by Destatis, the Federal Statistics Office. The projection highlights the urgency of attracting and retaining foreign talent, just nine months after the final phase of the Skilled-Worker Immigration Act and the new ‘Opportunity Card’ job-seeker visa came into force.
Destatis analysts modelled several fertility and migration scenarios. Even in their most optimistic case—net migration of 290,000 people per year—Germany’s head-count would plateau at 84 million before starting a steady decline. In a low-migration scenario the population could fall to 75 million by 2070, eroding the tax base that funds health-care and pensions. At the same time, the baby-boomer cohort born in the 1960s will push the ratio of retirees to working-age residents to almost 1:2 within a decade.
For employers, the data confirm what HR teams are experiencing on the ground: persistent labour shortages in nursing, construction and IT despite tepid GDP growth. The Federal Employment Agency already lists 163 occupations with structural gaps. Berlin hopes that easier credential recognition, lower salary thresholds for EU Blue Cards and the points-based Opportunity Card will lure at least 400,000 skilled migrants annually—targets that now look more like minimum requirements than ambitious goals.
![Federal Statistics Office Warns Ageing Germany Faces 10 Million Population Drop by 2070]()
Specialist visa facilitators can ease the administrative burden. VisaHQ, through its Germany-focused gateway (https://www.visahq.com/germany/), guides HR teams and individual applicants through the Opportunity Card process, Blue Card filings and dependent permits, offering real-time tracking and document checks that cut lead times and reduce rejection risk.
Mobility practitioners should expect continued political tension between calls for tighter asylum rules and the demographic need for more foreign workers. Companies may face additional reporting or sponsorship obligations if the government accelerates visa processing by delegating more checks to accredited employers, a measure the Interior Ministry is studying for 2026.
Action points: review long-term workforce-planning assumptions, expand relocation budgets for family dependants to improve retention, and engage with regional ‘welcome centres’ that can speed up municipal registration for new hires.
Destatis analysts modelled several fertility and migration scenarios. Even in their most optimistic case—net migration of 290,000 people per year—Germany’s head-count would plateau at 84 million before starting a steady decline. In a low-migration scenario the population could fall to 75 million by 2070, eroding the tax base that funds health-care and pensions. At the same time, the baby-boomer cohort born in the 1960s will push the ratio of retirees to working-age residents to almost 1:2 within a decade.
For employers, the data confirm what HR teams are experiencing on the ground: persistent labour shortages in nursing, construction and IT despite tepid GDP growth. The Federal Employment Agency already lists 163 occupations with structural gaps. Berlin hopes that easier credential recognition, lower salary thresholds for EU Blue Cards and the points-based Opportunity Card will lure at least 400,000 skilled migrants annually—targets that now look more like minimum requirements than ambitious goals.
Specialist visa facilitators can ease the administrative burden. VisaHQ, through its Germany-focused gateway (https://www.visahq.com/germany/), guides HR teams and individual applicants through the Opportunity Card process, Blue Card filings and dependent permits, offering real-time tracking and document checks that cut lead times and reduce rejection risk.
Mobility practitioners should expect continued political tension between calls for tighter asylum rules and the demographic need for more foreign workers. Companies may face additional reporting or sponsorship obligations if the government accelerates visa processing by delegating more checks to accredited employers, a measure the Interior Ministry is studying for 2026.
Action points: review long-term workforce-planning assumptions, expand relocation budgets for family dependants to improve retention, and engage with regional ‘welcome centres’ that can speed up municipal registration for new hires.
