Airlines for America (A4A) projects that U.S. carriers will transport more than 31 million passengers from 21 November through 1 December, making Thanksgiving 2025 the busiest holiday travel period on record. To meet demand, airlines have scheduled 45,000 additional seats per day and re-activated wide-body aircraft on high-density domestic routes such as New York–Los Angeles and Chicago–Phoenix.
Business-travel analysts attribute the surge to a robust U.S. economy and pent-up leisure demand following autumn flight disruptions tied to the six-week federal shutdown. With seat capacity stretched, average holiday airfares are tracking 8 percent higher than in 2024. Companies with essential Thanksgiving-week travel should secure tickets immediately and consider alternative airports—e.g., Oakland instead of San Francisco or Fort Lauderdale instead of Miami—to avoid peak congestion.
![U.S. Airlines Brace for Record-Breaking Thanksgiving: 31 Million Passengers in 11 Days]()
Operationally, airlines are promising smoother performance after the shutdown-driven staffing crunch; United and Southwest have both added reserve crews, while Delta says it has increased spare-aircraft availability by 15 percent. TSA is also surging overtime officers and warns that Sunday, 30 November, could eclipse the 3-million-passenger record set this summer. Global Entry Enrollment on Arrival counters will remain open, but CBP cautions that interview wait times may spike.
Houston and Miami airport authorities issued separate notices forecasting local records of 2.1 million and 1.96 million travelers, respectively, and advising passengers to arrive at least three hours early for morning departures. Employers should remind assignees to pad itineraries with extra connection time and to use airline apps for real-time rebooking, as November weather systems historically trigger cascading delays.
Looking ahead, carriers expect the traffic boom to carry into Christmas and the first quarter of 2026, reinforcing predictions that U.S. domestic demand will fully exceed pre-pandemic levels by year-end. For mobility programs, the message is clear: holiday travel will be crowded, expensive and prone to disruption—plan accordingly.
Business-travel analysts attribute the surge to a robust U.S. economy and pent-up leisure demand following autumn flight disruptions tied to the six-week federal shutdown. With seat capacity stretched, average holiday airfares are tracking 8 percent higher than in 2024. Companies with essential Thanksgiving-week travel should secure tickets immediately and consider alternative airports—e.g., Oakland instead of San Francisco or Fort Lauderdale instead of Miami—to avoid peak congestion.
Operationally, airlines are promising smoother performance after the shutdown-driven staffing crunch; United and Southwest have both added reserve crews, while Delta says it has increased spare-aircraft availability by 15 percent. TSA is also surging overtime officers and warns that Sunday, 30 November, could eclipse the 3-million-passenger record set this summer. Global Entry Enrollment on Arrival counters will remain open, but CBP cautions that interview wait times may spike.
Houston and Miami airport authorities issued separate notices forecasting local records of 2.1 million and 1.96 million travelers, respectively, and advising passengers to arrive at least three hours early for morning departures. Employers should remind assignees to pad itineraries with extra connection time and to use airline apps for real-time rebooking, as November weather systems historically trigger cascading delays.
Looking ahead, carriers expect the traffic boom to carry into Christmas and the first quarter of 2026, reinforcing predictions that U.S. domestic demand will fully exceed pre-pandemic levels by year-end. For mobility programs, the message is clear: holiday travel will be crowded, expensive and prone to disruption—plan accordingly.
