Canada’s Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) warned on February 26 that the country is likely to record flat population growth for the second consecutive year, despite continuing targets for 380,000 new permanent residents annually between 2026 and 2028. The culprit, the PBO says, is a steep reduction in the number of temporary work and study visas—down to about 385,000 this year from almost 674,000 in 2025—announced in the government’s latest Immigration Levels Plan. (cfjctoday.com)
The report projects the non-permanent resident (NPR) population will shrink by 385,000 people in 2026, offsetting arrivals of permanent residents and natural increase. Roughly 80 percent of the outflow is expected to come from work-permit holders leaving the country; the rest will be a mix of international graduates and asylum claimants transitioning to permanent status or departing Canada.
For individuals and employers trying to stay ahead of these rapid policy shifts, VisaHQ’s online platform can streamline everything from work-permit applications to study-visa extensions, offering step-by-step instructions and real-time status tracking in one place: https://www.visahq.com/canada/
![Budget watchdog forecasts zero population growth as temporary visa cuts bite]()
To cushion the decline, Ottawa has created two one-time programs that could fast-track permanent residency for up to 148,000 people already in Canada who cannot return home or who hold in-demand jobs. Even so, the PBO predicts NPRs will fall below 5 percent of the population by 2027, meeting the federal government’s policy goal but leaving employers scrambling for labour.
For multinationals, the analysis is a red flag: companies relying on international assignees or seasonal workers may need to recruit earlier, budget for higher wages, or shift functions to other jurisdictions. HR teams should also monitor provincial nominee programs, which may become the fastest route to retain valued talent.
Longer term, the PBO expects population growth to rebound to 0.8 percent annually, but only once the temporary-resident stock stabilises. Until then, planners in sectors from real estate to consumer goods should adjust demand forecasts to a much slower growth environment.
The report projects the non-permanent resident (NPR) population will shrink by 385,000 people in 2026, offsetting arrivals of permanent residents and natural increase. Roughly 80 percent of the outflow is expected to come from work-permit holders leaving the country; the rest will be a mix of international graduates and asylum claimants transitioning to permanent status or departing Canada.
For individuals and employers trying to stay ahead of these rapid policy shifts, VisaHQ’s online platform can streamline everything from work-permit applications to study-visa extensions, offering step-by-step instructions and real-time status tracking in one place: https://www.visahq.com/canada/
To cushion the decline, Ottawa has created two one-time programs that could fast-track permanent residency for up to 148,000 people already in Canada who cannot return home or who hold in-demand jobs. Even so, the PBO predicts NPRs will fall below 5 percent of the population by 2027, meeting the federal government’s policy goal but leaving employers scrambling for labour.
For multinationals, the analysis is a red flag: companies relying on international assignees or seasonal workers may need to recruit earlier, budget for higher wages, or shift functions to other jurisdictions. HR teams should also monitor provincial nominee programs, which may become the fastest route to retain valued talent.
Longer term, the PBO expects population growth to rebound to 0.8 percent annually, but only once the temporary-resident stock stabilises. Until then, planners in sectors from real estate to consumer goods should adjust demand forecasts to a much slower growth environment.
