Hours before the official data were released, the non-partisan think-tank British Future forecast that net migration would soon settle at around 300,000—a level last seen before the UK left the EU. Its analysis, published 27 November, combines provisional Home Office visa statistics with the ONS’s revised series to project a continuing decline through 2026 as tougher work and family routes take full effect.
Paradoxically, an Ipsos/British Future attitudes tracker finds that 56 % of Britons believe immigration rose last year and only 16 % expect numbers to fall in the year ahead. Director Sunder Katwala warned that “crisis” rhetoric from across the political spectrum risks entrenching misperceptions and undermining confidence in the system just as pressures on services begin to ease.
![Think-tank Predicts Net Migration Returning to Pre-Brexit Norms, Public Still Think It’s Rising]()
The think-tank also notes a mismatch between government plans and public preferences on settlement. While ministers intend to make most migrants wait ten years (or up to 30 for some) before becoming eligible for permanent residence, half of survey respondents think five years should suffice for graduate-level workers.
For employers, the findings signal a risk that immigration policy could tighten further despite falling numbers if public sentiment is not realigned with facts. Corporate mobility teams may wish to step up internal communications that highlight economic contributions of sponsored workers and publish pay-scale compliance to counter narratives of low-wage migration.
British Future urges ministers to pivot from target-driven politics to a long-term workforce strategy that balances economic need, integration and public consent.
Paradoxically, an Ipsos/British Future attitudes tracker finds that 56 % of Britons believe immigration rose last year and only 16 % expect numbers to fall in the year ahead. Director Sunder Katwala warned that “crisis” rhetoric from across the political spectrum risks entrenching misperceptions and undermining confidence in the system just as pressures on services begin to ease.
The think-tank also notes a mismatch between government plans and public preferences on settlement. While ministers intend to make most migrants wait ten years (or up to 30 for some) before becoming eligible for permanent residence, half of survey respondents think five years should suffice for graduate-level workers.
For employers, the findings signal a risk that immigration policy could tighten further despite falling numbers if public sentiment is not realigned with facts. Corporate mobility teams may wish to step up internal communications that highlight economic contributions of sponsored workers and publish pay-scale compliance to counter narratives of low-wage migration.
British Future urges ministers to pivot from target-driven politics to a long-term workforce strategy that balances economic need, integration and public consent.
