A study released this morning by think-tank Funcas and reported by The Local warns that Spain will need 2.4 million additional workers by 2035 simply to maintain current ratios of contributors to pensioners. Given Spain’s shrinking native workforce, nearly all of those jobs are expected to be filled by migrants.
Demographers paint a stark picture: even with record employment, Spain’s fertility rate of 1.3 children per woman guarantees a contracting labour pool. Unless immigration accelerates, the old-age dependency ratio will jump from 34 % today to 48 % within ten years, straining the pay-as-you-go pension system.
![New forecast: Spain must add 2.4 million foreign workers in the next decade to keep pensions afloat]()
The report models three scenarios. In the ‘baseline’, net annual immigration of 240,000 maintains economic output but pushes pension spending to 16 % of GDP. In the ‘high-immigration’ scenario—net inflows of 350,000—the dependency ratio stabilises and pension costs peak at 14.8 % of GDP, saving €16 billion a year by 2035. Conversely, low immigration would trigger a €40 billion annual shortfall.
Policy recommendations include expanding training-linked work permits, recognising foreign qualifications more quickly and rolling out a points-based visa for sectors suffering acute shortages (IT, nursing, green construction). Business federations welcomed the analysis, noting that unfilled vacancies have doubled since 2019 despite unemployment still hovering near 11 %.
For global mobility teams, the findings foreshadow a friendlier stance toward skilled immigration. Sources in the Inclusion Ministry say a legislative package—nicknamed “Ley Talento”—is being drafted for early 2026 to make Spain “one of Europe’s easiest jurisdictions for hiring non-EU talent.”
Demographers paint a stark picture: even with record employment, Spain’s fertility rate of 1.3 children per woman guarantees a contracting labour pool. Unless immigration accelerates, the old-age dependency ratio will jump from 34 % today to 48 % within ten years, straining the pay-as-you-go pension system.
The report models three scenarios. In the ‘baseline’, net annual immigration of 240,000 maintains economic output but pushes pension spending to 16 % of GDP. In the ‘high-immigration’ scenario—net inflows of 350,000—the dependency ratio stabilises and pension costs peak at 14.8 % of GDP, saving €16 billion a year by 2035. Conversely, low immigration would trigger a €40 billion annual shortfall.
Policy recommendations include expanding training-linked work permits, recognising foreign qualifications more quickly and rolling out a points-based visa for sectors suffering acute shortages (IT, nursing, green construction). Business federations welcomed the analysis, noting that unfilled vacancies have doubled since 2019 despite unemployment still hovering near 11 %.
For global mobility teams, the findings foreshadow a friendlier stance toward skilled immigration. Sources in the Inclusion Ministry say a legislative package—nicknamed “Ley Talento”—is being drafted for early 2026 to make Spain “one of Europe’s easiest jurisdictions for hiring non-EU talent.”
