Spain’s much-debated extraordinary regularisation of undocumented migrants has taken a dramatic turn after an internal “risk analysis” by the National Centre for Immigration and Borders (CNIF) of the National Police was leaked on 16 February. The 29-page report, seen by El Confidencial, doubles the government’s own estimate of 500,000 beneficiaries, projecting that between 1 million and 1.35 million people could ultimately obtain residence and work permits once the window for applications opens on 1 April.
The CNIF reaches its figure by adding two groups. First, it believes 750,000–1,000,000 undocumented foreign nationals already living in Spain for the required five months will file applications. Second, it assumes that a further 250,000–350,000 asylum-seekers will also qualify because the decree allows anyone who lodged an international-protection claim before 31 December 2025 to switch tracks. Police analysts warn that the comparatively “lax” documentation requirements—for example, a sworn statement may replace a home-country criminal-record certificate—will push approval rates close to 100 percent.
At this stage, many employers and individual applicants are turning to specialist facilitators for guidance. VisaHQ, for example, offers an up-to-date portal on Spanish entry and residence requirements and can streamline document procurement, authentication, and appointment scheduling; more information is available at https://www.visahq.com/spain/
![Spanish Police Warn Regularisation Plan Could Legalise Over One Million Migrants]()
Beyond the headline numbers, officers voice strategic concerns. They predict that Spain’s image as the “most permissive” Schengen member will trigger “secondary movements” of 200,000–250,000 irregular migrants per year from elsewhere in the EU and divert maritime routes toward the Canaries and Andalusia, increasing sea arrivals by 6,000–12,000 annually. They also fear a collapse of already-overstretched immigration police units and a surge in document fraud; lost-passport reports have already risen 60 percent since the decree was announced.
The Ministry of Inclusion swiftly rejected the assessment, insisting that a fixed cut-off date eliminates any “pull factor” and that regularisation is the best way to curb exploitation. Business groups are watching closely: the hospitality, agriculture and care-home sectors—chronically short of legal staff—see the scheme as a chance to formalise large parts of their workforce and reduce reputational risks linked to undeclared labour.
For multinational employers the message is clear: if they are hosting assignees in Spain on dependent-spouse permits or other precarious statuses, the April-to-June window could provide a rapid path to legal work authorisation—but HR teams should brace for appointment bottlenecks at extranjería offices and for tougher scrutiny on documentation authenticity.
The CNIF reaches its figure by adding two groups. First, it believes 750,000–1,000,000 undocumented foreign nationals already living in Spain for the required five months will file applications. Second, it assumes that a further 250,000–350,000 asylum-seekers will also qualify because the decree allows anyone who lodged an international-protection claim before 31 December 2025 to switch tracks. Police analysts warn that the comparatively “lax” documentation requirements—for example, a sworn statement may replace a home-country criminal-record certificate—will push approval rates close to 100 percent.
At this stage, many employers and individual applicants are turning to specialist facilitators for guidance. VisaHQ, for example, offers an up-to-date portal on Spanish entry and residence requirements and can streamline document procurement, authentication, and appointment scheduling; more information is available at https://www.visahq.com/spain/
Beyond the headline numbers, officers voice strategic concerns. They predict that Spain’s image as the “most permissive” Schengen member will trigger “secondary movements” of 200,000–250,000 irregular migrants per year from elsewhere in the EU and divert maritime routes toward the Canaries and Andalusia, increasing sea arrivals by 6,000–12,000 annually. They also fear a collapse of already-overstretched immigration police units and a surge in document fraud; lost-passport reports have already risen 60 percent since the decree was announced.
The Ministry of Inclusion swiftly rejected the assessment, insisting that a fixed cut-off date eliminates any “pull factor” and that regularisation is the best way to curb exploitation. Business groups are watching closely: the hospitality, agriculture and care-home sectors—chronically short of legal staff—see the scheme as a chance to formalise large parts of their workforce and reduce reputational risks linked to undeclared labour.
For multinational employers the message is clear: if they are hosting assignees in Spain on dependent-spouse permits or other precarious statuses, the April-to-June window could provide a rapid path to legal work authorisation—but HR teams should brace for appointment bottlenecks at extranjería offices and for tougher scrutiny on documentation authenticity.
