A Moody’s Ratings brief released on 12 February concludes that India’s export-oriented IT sector will remain resilient even if the United States—under its current administration—pushes ahead with a $100,000 H-1B application fee and weighted selection criteria. Although the reforms raise operating costs by an estimated $100-250 million, that represents barely 1 % of sector revenue, the agency says.(timesofindia.indiatimes.com)
Tier-1 outsourcers such as TCS, Infosys and Wipro enjoy EBITA margins of 19-26 %, giving them headroom to absorb the shock. Smaller firms, however, may struggle and could accelerate near-shoring or hire more locally in the US. Moody’s notes that on-site US services already account for only about 10 % of India’s $205 billion software-services exports, down from 17 % in 2017, a trend likely to continue as generative-AI adoption reduces the need for visa-dependent roles.
Mobility managers should still budget higher petition costs for FY 2027 filings and anticipate a preference for advanced-degree holders in the weighted lottery. Some corporates are exploring Canada’s Global Talent Stream and the UK’s Scale-Up visa as hedges.
![Moody’s: Indian IT can absorb Trump-era $100k H-1B filing fee hike]()
For companies and professionals comparing these evolving pathways, VisaHQ’s India portal offers a one-stop resource with step-by-step guidance on U.S. H-1B applications as well as alternatives such as Canada’s GTS and the UK Scale-Up visa—complete with fee calculators and document checklists—at https://www.visahq.com/india/
Policy analysts warn that sustained fee inflation could push Indian talent towards alternate destinations, eroding US competitiveness in AI and cloud. Conversely, India could benefit from returning talent and increased foreign direct investment in Global Capability Centres as companies relocate work to the subcontinent.
For Indian graduates, the message is mixed: H-1B remains a pathway, but costlier and more selective; alternative mobility channels such as the UK IYPS and Australia’s Work and Holiday ballot may see a spike in interest.
Tier-1 outsourcers such as TCS, Infosys and Wipro enjoy EBITA margins of 19-26 %, giving them headroom to absorb the shock. Smaller firms, however, may struggle and could accelerate near-shoring or hire more locally in the US. Moody’s notes that on-site US services already account for only about 10 % of India’s $205 billion software-services exports, down from 17 % in 2017, a trend likely to continue as generative-AI adoption reduces the need for visa-dependent roles.
Mobility managers should still budget higher petition costs for FY 2027 filings and anticipate a preference for advanced-degree holders in the weighted lottery. Some corporates are exploring Canada’s Global Talent Stream and the UK’s Scale-Up visa as hedges.
For companies and professionals comparing these evolving pathways, VisaHQ’s India portal offers a one-stop resource with step-by-step guidance on U.S. H-1B applications as well as alternatives such as Canada’s GTS and the UK Scale-Up visa—complete with fee calculators and document checklists—at https://www.visahq.com/india/
Policy analysts warn that sustained fee inflation could push Indian talent towards alternate destinations, eroding US competitiveness in AI and cloud. Conversely, India could benefit from returning talent and increased foreign direct investment in Global Capability Centres as companies relocate work to the subcontinent.
For Indian graduates, the message is mixed: H-1B remains a pathway, but costlier and more selective; alternative mobility channels such as the UK IYPS and Australia’s Work and Holiday ballot may see a spike in interest.
