Australia’s long-running post-pandemic migration boom is decisively over. New figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on 19 December show net-overseas migration (NOM) for the 2024-25 financial year plunging to 306,000 people, down 29 per cent on the record 429,000 recorded a year earlier. Quarterly data tell the same story: the June-quarter net gain of 50,120 migrants was the smallest since international borders re-opened in 2021.
The sharp reversal is being driven by two forces operating in tandem. First, fewer people are arriving. Migrant arrivals dropped 14 per cent to 568,000, with the steepest falls among temporary entrants such as Working Holiday Makers and international students. Second, more people are leaving. Departures jumped 13 per cent to 263,000, led by a doubling in exits by Working Holiday visa-holders and an uptick in permanent residents returning home as global labour markets reopen.
For organisations and individuals trying to navigate these evolving visa settings, VisaHQ’s Australia portal (https://www.visahq.com/australia/) provides real-time guidance, streamlined document checklists, and end-to-end application support across categories ranging from Working Holiday to skilled-worker visas, helping applicants stay compliant and avoid processing delays as quotas tighten.
![Net Overseas Migration to Australia Falls to 3-Year Low as Departures Surge]()
For business, the new numbers confirm what recruiters have reported for months: the supply of readily available international talent is tightening. Sectors that had relied on abundant student and backpacker labour—hospitality, aged-care, agriculture—now face higher wage pressure and must accelerate investment in retention and automation. Universities, meanwhile, are bracing for slower commencements just as the government ratchets up integrity tests and processing triage for student visas.
Treasury now forecasts NOM to slip further to 260,000 in 2025-26 before settling near 225,000 by 2026-27—still above the pre-COVID average of 190,000 but well below the peak that fuelled Australia’s rapid population rebound. Employers planning expatriate assignments should therefore factor in longer lead-times for securing skilled-worker nominations and possible competition with domestic firms for limited talent pools. HR teams are also advised to review rotation policies: outbound transfers may face fewer local back-fill options as the pool of new arrivals shrinks.
Finally, the data will feed directly into the Albanese Government’s broader migration reforms. Ministers argue that lower numbers will relieve housing pressure and give agencies room to implement a more “targeted, smaller, better-regulated” migration program. Whether that promise reassures business will depend on how quickly visa backlogs clear—and whether upcoming budget measures expand places in critical-skills categories to offset the retreat in discretionary flows.
The sharp reversal is being driven by two forces operating in tandem. First, fewer people are arriving. Migrant arrivals dropped 14 per cent to 568,000, with the steepest falls among temporary entrants such as Working Holiday Makers and international students. Second, more people are leaving. Departures jumped 13 per cent to 263,000, led by a doubling in exits by Working Holiday visa-holders and an uptick in permanent residents returning home as global labour markets reopen.
For organisations and individuals trying to navigate these evolving visa settings, VisaHQ’s Australia portal (https://www.visahq.com/australia/) provides real-time guidance, streamlined document checklists, and end-to-end application support across categories ranging from Working Holiday to skilled-worker visas, helping applicants stay compliant and avoid processing delays as quotas tighten.
For business, the new numbers confirm what recruiters have reported for months: the supply of readily available international talent is tightening. Sectors that had relied on abundant student and backpacker labour—hospitality, aged-care, agriculture—now face higher wage pressure and must accelerate investment in retention and automation. Universities, meanwhile, are bracing for slower commencements just as the government ratchets up integrity tests and processing triage for student visas.
Treasury now forecasts NOM to slip further to 260,000 in 2025-26 before settling near 225,000 by 2026-27—still above the pre-COVID average of 190,000 but well below the peak that fuelled Australia’s rapid population rebound. Employers planning expatriate assignments should therefore factor in longer lead-times for securing skilled-worker nominations and possible competition with domestic firms for limited talent pools. HR teams are also advised to review rotation policies: outbound transfers may face fewer local back-fill options as the pool of new arrivals shrinks.
Finally, the data will feed directly into the Albanese Government’s broader migration reforms. Ministers argue that lower numbers will relieve housing pressure and give agencies room to implement a more “targeted, smaller, better-regulated” migration program. Whether that promise reassures business will depend on how quickly visa backlogs clear—and whether upcoming budget measures expand places in critical-skills categories to offset the retreat in discretionary flows.
