Australia’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO), released on 17 December 2025, confirms that the Albanese Government now expects net-overseas-migration (NOM) to fall far faster than previously forecast. Treasury has revised the figure for the 12 months to June 2025 down to 310,000 from the 335,000 estimated in the May budget and projects a further drop to 260,000 in 2025-26 and 225,000 in 2026-27. Although still well above the pre-pandemic average of about 190,000, the cuts signal the sharpest official pull-back in long-term arrivals in a decade.
The downward adjustment is driven almost entirely by a suite of integrity measures targeting the student-visa system. Since July the Department of Home Affairs has raised application charges (now AUD 2,000, the highest among major English-speaking study destinations), imposed a new Genuine Student test, curtailed post-study work rights for selected courses and, most recently, activated Ministerial Direction 115 to triage offshore Subclass 500 applications. Universities whose enrolments exceed 2026 planning allocations are being pushed into a slower processing queue, while private colleges deemed “high risk” face intensified scrutiny. Officials argue the policies are essential to address housing shortages and restore confidence in the migration program.
For applicants trying to keep pace with these rapid changes, VisaHQ provides an accessible concierge service that tracks policy updates in real time and guides users through each step of the Australian visa application; their portal (https://www.visahq.com/australia/) can help universities, employers and students assemble compliant documentation and monitor processing milestones, reducing the risk of delays or refusals.
![MYEFO slashes net-overseas-migration forecast as Canberra tightens student visas]()
Business groups and state treasuries have reacted with alarm. Universities Australia warns that a prolonged cap could wipe AUD 6 billion from annual export revenue and threaten thousands of academic jobs. The Property Council counters that population restraint will ease rental pressure in the short run but risks exacerbating long-term skills shortages in construction. Former deputy secretary of Immigration, Abul Rizvi, told Sky News that departures of temporary migrants are proving “stickier” than expected and NOM could still overshoot unless the labour market weakens markedly.
For employers that rely on graduate talent pipelines, the immediate impact is longer lead-times and higher compliance costs. Sponsors report student-to-work-visa conversion rates falling as refusal rates climb, particularly in the VET sector. Mobility managers are being advised to lock in talent early, budget for higher visa fees and allow an extra four to six weeks for Subclass 482 Skills-in-Demand processing where offshore medicals are required.
Politically, the MYEFO numbers set the stage for an election-year contest over migration. The Coalition has delayed the release of its own policy but is signalling even tougher caps and stronger enforcement. With housing affordability dominating voter concerns, global-mobility practitioners should expect continued volatility in visa settings through 2026.
The downward adjustment is driven almost entirely by a suite of integrity measures targeting the student-visa system. Since July the Department of Home Affairs has raised application charges (now AUD 2,000, the highest among major English-speaking study destinations), imposed a new Genuine Student test, curtailed post-study work rights for selected courses and, most recently, activated Ministerial Direction 115 to triage offshore Subclass 500 applications. Universities whose enrolments exceed 2026 planning allocations are being pushed into a slower processing queue, while private colleges deemed “high risk” face intensified scrutiny. Officials argue the policies are essential to address housing shortages and restore confidence in the migration program.
For applicants trying to keep pace with these rapid changes, VisaHQ provides an accessible concierge service that tracks policy updates in real time and guides users through each step of the Australian visa application; their portal (https://www.visahq.com/australia/) can help universities, employers and students assemble compliant documentation and monitor processing milestones, reducing the risk of delays or refusals.
Business groups and state treasuries have reacted with alarm. Universities Australia warns that a prolonged cap could wipe AUD 6 billion from annual export revenue and threaten thousands of academic jobs. The Property Council counters that population restraint will ease rental pressure in the short run but risks exacerbating long-term skills shortages in construction. Former deputy secretary of Immigration, Abul Rizvi, told Sky News that departures of temporary migrants are proving “stickier” than expected and NOM could still overshoot unless the labour market weakens markedly.
For employers that rely on graduate talent pipelines, the immediate impact is longer lead-times and higher compliance costs. Sponsors report student-to-work-visa conversion rates falling as refusal rates climb, particularly in the VET sector. Mobility managers are being advised to lock in talent early, budget for higher visa fees and allow an extra four to six weeks for Subclass 482 Skills-in-Demand processing where offshore medicals are required.
Politically, the MYEFO numbers set the stage for an election-year contest over migration. The Coalition has delayed the release of its own policy but is signalling even tougher caps and stronger enforcement. With housing affordability dominating voter concerns, global-mobility practitioners should expect continued volatility in visa settings through 2026.
