At its 5 November meeting, Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) kept the benchmark Selic rate at 15 % for the third straight time and said holding the rate “for a very prolonged period” should be enough to push inflation back to the 3 % target. All 40 economists polled by Reuters had expected the hold, but markets were surprised by the more confident tone that effectively rules out an early cut.
Why it matters for global mobility: the Selic sets the floor for consumer credit and mortgage costs, which remain among the highest in the G-20. Expat housing allowances pegged to local mortgage rates or condominium rents will stay elevated, and relocation packages denominated in foreign currency may need upward adjustment if the strong real persists. The decision also weighs on corporate cost of capital; companies financing relocation or site expansion projects in Brazil will continue to face double-digit borrowing costs.
![Selic stays at 15 %: Brazil’s central bank extends ‘very prolonged’ pause]()
Copom modestly lowered its inflation forecast to 4.6 % for 2025 but warned that tight labour markets and consumption—fueled in part by the new middle-class tax break—could add price pressure. Analysts at Capital Economics and Banco Inter have postponed expectations for the first rate cut to early 2026, and some warn that fiscal loosening could even force a hike.
For HR teams, high real interest rates mean larger tax-deductible interest on employer loans to staff (a common incentive in Brazil) but also higher imputed-income charges where companies subsidise housing. Programme managers should stress-test budgets under the assumption that Selic stays above 12 % through 2026.
Currency outlook: a tighter stance has helped the real firm to around R$5.40 per US dollar, trimming exchange-rate protection costs in assignment packages but increasing the local price tag of imported goods often consumed by expatriates. Finance departments should update balance-sheet and split-pay models accordingly.
Why it matters for global mobility: the Selic sets the floor for consumer credit and mortgage costs, which remain among the highest in the G-20. Expat housing allowances pegged to local mortgage rates or condominium rents will stay elevated, and relocation packages denominated in foreign currency may need upward adjustment if the strong real persists. The decision also weighs on corporate cost of capital; companies financing relocation or site expansion projects in Brazil will continue to face double-digit borrowing costs.
Copom modestly lowered its inflation forecast to 4.6 % for 2025 but warned that tight labour markets and consumption—fueled in part by the new middle-class tax break—could add price pressure. Analysts at Capital Economics and Banco Inter have postponed expectations for the first rate cut to early 2026, and some warn that fiscal loosening could even force a hike.
For HR teams, high real interest rates mean larger tax-deductible interest on employer loans to staff (a common incentive in Brazil) but also higher imputed-income charges where companies subsidise housing. Programme managers should stress-test budgets under the assumption that Selic stays above 12 % through 2026.
Currency outlook: a tighter stance has helped the real firm to around R$5.40 per US dollar, trimming exchange-rate protection costs in assignment packages but increasing the local price tag of imported goods often consumed by expatriates. Finance departments should update balance-sheet and split-pay models accordingly.
