New Home Office modelling obtained by The Guardian on 14 February suggests the UK could record **negative net migration for the first time since 1993**. The forecast reflects the cumulative effect of tougher student-dependent rules, a higher salary threshold for Skilled Worker visas and a doubling of settlement qualifying periods. Universities are already feeling the pinch: the University of Greenwich announced a merger with Kent in a bid to offset a projected £120 million fall in overseas-tuition income, while construction and social-care employers warn of unfilled vacancies.
Economists at the National Institute of Economic & Social Research (NIESR) estimate that if net migration dips below zero for three consecutive years, the UK’s GDP could be 3.7 percent smaller by 2040—similar in scale to post-Brexit trade losses. Treasury insiders fear a £6–8 billion hole in the fiscal plan just as Chancellor Rachel Reeves prepares her first full Budget in March.
![Net Migration Could Turn Negative in 2026, Raising UK Labour-Shortage Fears]()
In this evolving landscape, VisaHQ can help both employers and individual applicants navigate the tightening rules. Through its UK portal (https://www.visahq.com/united-kingdom/), the service offers real-time guidance on Skilled Worker, student-dependent and other visa routes, simplifies document submission, and delivers alerts on policy changes—saving valuable time and reducing the risk of costly mistakes.
Business groups, including the CBI and techUK, are lobbying for exemptions, arguing that the new rules were designed to win over anti-immigration voters but now risk stifling growth. The Home Office counters that demand-led visas will still be available and insists the reforms will ‘restore public confidence’ in the system.
For mobility managers, the key takeaway is that obtaining a certificate of sponsorship (CoS) will become harder and more expensive. Companies should re-map talent pipelines, anticipate longer lead-times for hires and budget for repeated CoS renewals as staff may need 10 years to reach settlement.
Economists at the National Institute of Economic & Social Research (NIESR) estimate that if net migration dips below zero for three consecutive years, the UK’s GDP could be 3.7 percent smaller by 2040—similar in scale to post-Brexit trade losses. Treasury insiders fear a £6–8 billion hole in the fiscal plan just as Chancellor Rachel Reeves prepares her first full Budget in March.
In this evolving landscape, VisaHQ can help both employers and individual applicants navigate the tightening rules. Through its UK portal (https://www.visahq.com/united-kingdom/), the service offers real-time guidance on Skilled Worker, student-dependent and other visa routes, simplifies document submission, and delivers alerts on policy changes—saving valuable time and reducing the risk of costly mistakes.
Business groups, including the CBI and techUK, are lobbying for exemptions, arguing that the new rules were designed to win over anti-immigration voters but now risk stifling growth. The Home Office counters that demand-led visas will still be available and insists the reforms will ‘restore public confidence’ in the system.
For mobility managers, the key takeaway is that obtaining a certificate of sponsorship (CoS) will become harder and more expensive. Companies should re-map talent pipelines, anticipate longer lead-times for hires and budget for repeated CoS renewals as staff may need 10 years to reach settlement.
