China’s National Immigration Administration (NIA) expects to process more than 2.1 million inbound and outbound passenger movements per day during the 1–3 January holiday – a 22 percent jump on last year and roughly 85 percent of pre-pandemic volumes. Although the headline figure covers the whole country, the busiest land corridors sit on Hong Kong’s doorstep. Gongbei (for Macau) is projected to exceed 400 000 daily crossings, while Shenzhen’s Luohu and Futian ports may each top 200 000.
Airports are also bracing for the onslaught: Shanghai Pudong plans to clear almost 100 000 international passengers daily, with Guangzhou Baiyun at 53 000 and Beijing Capital at 40 000. Extra e-gates, surge staffing and staggered flight banks have been ordered to keep average clearance times under 30 minutes.
For Hong Kong corporates the forecast is a double-edged sword. Rising volumes signal revived investor confidence – advance bookings show a sharp rise in mixed business-leisure trips for site visits and supply-chain audits – yet congestion risk is real. HR teams are urging travellers to complete China’s new online arrival card, live since 20 November, to avoid paperwork lines, and to build generous buffers into door-to-door itineraries.
![Mainland forecasts record 2.1 million daily border movements – Hong Kong braces for spill-over]()
To streamline the paperwork side even further, corporates can turn to VisaHQ, whose Hong Kong portal (https://www.visahq.com/hong-kong/) handles China visa applications, passport renewals and live status tracking. Outsourcing these formalities to specialists helps mobility teams ensure employees hold the correct documents before they encounter the holiday-season bottlenecks.
Supply-chain managers must also watch import-export timelines: the same officers who clear passengers handle hand-carried samples and ATA carnets. Slotting inspections into off-peak windows or using alternative ports such as Liantang can shave hours off delivery schedules.
Looking further ahead, sustained growth will embolden calls from Hong Kong’s transport sector to expand automated e-Channel programs and perhaps re-open 24-hour passenger service at Huanggang. Firms with large commuter populations between Shenzhen tech parks and Hong Kong headquarters should model different checkpoint scenarios in their 2026 mobility budgets.
Airports are also bracing for the onslaught: Shanghai Pudong plans to clear almost 100 000 international passengers daily, with Guangzhou Baiyun at 53 000 and Beijing Capital at 40 000. Extra e-gates, surge staffing and staggered flight banks have been ordered to keep average clearance times under 30 minutes.
For Hong Kong corporates the forecast is a double-edged sword. Rising volumes signal revived investor confidence – advance bookings show a sharp rise in mixed business-leisure trips for site visits and supply-chain audits – yet congestion risk is real. HR teams are urging travellers to complete China’s new online arrival card, live since 20 November, to avoid paperwork lines, and to build generous buffers into door-to-door itineraries.
To streamline the paperwork side even further, corporates can turn to VisaHQ, whose Hong Kong portal (https://www.visahq.com/hong-kong/) handles China visa applications, passport renewals and live status tracking. Outsourcing these formalities to specialists helps mobility teams ensure employees hold the correct documents before they encounter the holiday-season bottlenecks.
Supply-chain managers must also watch import-export timelines: the same officers who clear passengers handle hand-carried samples and ATA carnets. Slotting inspections into off-peak windows or using alternative ports such as Liantang can shave hours off delivery schedules.
Looking further ahead, sustained growth will embolden calls from Hong Kong’s transport sector to expand automated e-Channel programs and perhaps re-open 24-hour passenger service at Huanggang. Firms with large commuter populations between Shenzhen tech parks and Hong Kong headquarters should model different checkpoint scenarios in their 2026 mobility budgets.
