Statistics Canada’s third-quarter demographic snapshot, obtained by The Guardian on December 17, 2025, shows the country’s head-count edging down 0.2 % to 41.6 million—its steepest quarterly decline in modern history. The drop is tied almost entirely to a 60 % reduction in new international students after Ottawa halved study-permit allocations and tightened ‘genuine student’ criteria earlier this year.
Policy shift and political backdrop Prime Minister Mark Carney has pledged to shrink the share of non-permanent residents (NPRs) from 7.3 % of the population to 5 % by 2027, arguing that runaway temporary migration strained housing and health-care systems. While the Liberal government remains pro-immigration overall, it is redirecting admissions toward permanent economic streams and away from temporary permits viewed as vulnerable to exploitation by diploma-mill colleges.
Economic ripple effects Early evidence suggests the strategy is easing rental inflation in major cities and tempering grocery-price growth by cooling demand. However, universities and colleges—especially in Ontario—face revenue holes that could lead to campus closures and job losses. Sectors that rely on international students for part-time labour, from hospitality to retail, report staffing gaps heading into the holiday season.
![Canada’s population falls for first time in years as student-permit crackdown bites]()
For those still planning to study or work in Canada amid these policy changes, VisaHQ can guide applicants through the evolving maze of study-permit, work-permit and visitor-visa requirements. The service offers real-time updates, document checks and step-by-step online filing to help reduce delays—learn more at https://www.visahq.com/canada/.
Regional picture Only Alberta and Nunavut bucked the national trend, each posting 0.2 % quarterly growth thanks to interprovincial migration and energy-sector hiring. Ontario and British Columbia, home to the largest international-student cohorts, recorded the sharpest declines.
What’s next The Finance Ministry forecasts a gradual rebound in total population as permanent-resident admissions rise to 380,000 a year, but warns that housing supply must accelerate in tandem. Institutions that recruit overseas students will need to pivot toward fewer, higher-value programs and demonstrate robust housing supports to secure future permit allocations.
Policy shift and political backdrop Prime Minister Mark Carney has pledged to shrink the share of non-permanent residents (NPRs) from 7.3 % of the population to 5 % by 2027, arguing that runaway temporary migration strained housing and health-care systems. While the Liberal government remains pro-immigration overall, it is redirecting admissions toward permanent economic streams and away from temporary permits viewed as vulnerable to exploitation by diploma-mill colleges.
Economic ripple effects Early evidence suggests the strategy is easing rental inflation in major cities and tempering grocery-price growth by cooling demand. However, universities and colleges—especially in Ontario—face revenue holes that could lead to campus closures and job losses. Sectors that rely on international students for part-time labour, from hospitality to retail, report staffing gaps heading into the holiday season.
For those still planning to study or work in Canada amid these policy changes, VisaHQ can guide applicants through the evolving maze of study-permit, work-permit and visitor-visa requirements. The service offers real-time updates, document checks and step-by-step online filing to help reduce delays—learn more at https://www.visahq.com/canada/.
Regional picture Only Alberta and Nunavut bucked the national trend, each posting 0.2 % quarterly growth thanks to interprovincial migration and energy-sector hiring. Ontario and British Columbia, home to the largest international-student cohorts, recorded the sharpest declines.
What’s next The Finance Ministry forecasts a gradual rebound in total population as permanent-resident admissions rise to 380,000 a year, but warns that housing supply must accelerate in tandem. Institutions that recruit overseas students will need to pivot toward fewer, higher-value programs and demonstrate robust housing supports to secure future permit allocations.
