VisaHQ analysis of internal IRCC dashboards reveals that Canada had 2,200,100 pending immigration files as of 30 September 2025, with 996,700—45 %—outside service standards. Temporary-resident streams account for nearly half of the total, driven by a 10 % month-over-month spike in study-permit requests ahead of the January intake.
Why this matters: Longer queues translate into uncertain start dates for inbound assignees, delayed family reunification and higher carrying costs for employers covering bridging work-permits. The numbers also cast doubt on Ottawa’s plan to stabilise annual permanent-resident admissions at 485,000.
![IRCC inventory tops 2.2 million as backlog inches back toward pandemic highs]()
IRCC response: Officials point to a multi-year Digital Platform Modernisation project and AI triage pilot for visitor visas, but union leaders say staffing remains 20 % below the level needed to meet targets. Budget 2025 earmarks CAD 258 million for new officers, yet hiring and training will take 12–18 months.
Corporate strategy: • Prioritise work-permit categories with exemptions from the Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA), such as C-12 (significant benefit) and intra-company transferees; • File complete, “decision-ready” applications to avoid automated refusal filters; • Communicate realistic lead times—six to nine months for LMIA-based hires—to business units.
Outlook: Unless intake caps are applied to temporary streams in 2026, most analysts expect the backlog to stay near the one-million mark through mid-2026.
Why this matters: Longer queues translate into uncertain start dates for inbound assignees, delayed family reunification and higher carrying costs for employers covering bridging work-permits. The numbers also cast doubt on Ottawa’s plan to stabilise annual permanent-resident admissions at 485,000.
IRCC response: Officials point to a multi-year Digital Platform Modernisation project and AI triage pilot for visitor visas, but union leaders say staffing remains 20 % below the level needed to meet targets. Budget 2025 earmarks CAD 258 million for new officers, yet hiring and training will take 12–18 months.
Corporate strategy: • Prioritise work-permit categories with exemptions from the Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA), such as C-12 (significant benefit) and intra-company transferees; • File complete, “decision-ready” applications to avoid automated refusal filters; • Communicate realistic lead times—six to nine months for LMIA-based hires—to business units.
Outlook: Unless intake caps are applied to temporary streams in 2026, most analysts expect the backlog to stay near the one-million mark through mid-2026.
