The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published its November 2025 quarterly update on population and migration statistics, setting out an ambitious schedule to retire International Passenger Survey-dependent methods and shift to real-time administrative data by mid-2026. Key takeaways include confirmation that long-term international-migration (LTIM) estimates to June 2025—using the improved methodology—will be released on 27 November, and that research articles detailing the impact of the new model will precede the data on 18 November.
The ONS reiterated that British-national outflow estimates and EU-plus inflow figures will be entirely modelled from tax and visa datasets, eliminating the survey’s long-criticised sampling error. The agency also launched a Census 2031 topic consultation, signalling that migration-related questions could change to align with digital administrative sources.
![ONS releases quarterly roadmap on population and migration overhaul]()
For employers, more accurate and timely migration data will sharpen Home Office workload forecasts and could influence the annual review of salary thresholds under the points-based system. Relocation planners should note that the ONS plans to release provisional mid-2025 population estimates by summer 2026, rather than the usual autumn slot, accelerating local-area demand modelling for housing and schools.
The statistical overhaul could also tighten the feedback loop between net-migration trends and political decision-making, potentially leading to swifter policy changes. Businesses relying on foreign talent should monitor the 27 November LTIM release for an early signal of whether net migration is plateauing after its record 846,000 peak in 2022.
The ONS reiterated that British-national outflow estimates and EU-plus inflow figures will be entirely modelled from tax and visa datasets, eliminating the survey’s long-criticised sampling error. The agency also launched a Census 2031 topic consultation, signalling that migration-related questions could change to align with digital administrative sources.
For employers, more accurate and timely migration data will sharpen Home Office workload forecasts and could influence the annual review of salary thresholds under the points-based system. Relocation planners should note that the ONS plans to release provisional mid-2025 population estimates by summer 2026, rather than the usual autumn slot, accelerating local-area demand modelling for housing and schools.
The statistical overhaul could also tighten the feedback loop between net-migration trends and political decision-making, potentially leading to swifter policy changes. Businesses relying on foreign talent should monitor the 27 November LTIM release for an early signal of whether net migration is plateauing after its record 846,000 peak in 2022.
