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nov. 1, 2025

Stronger trade and returning travellers help Hong Kong GDP beat forecasts in Q3

Stronger trade and returning travellers help Hong Kong GDP beat forecasts in Q3
Hong Kong’s economy expanded 3.8 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, outpacing economists’ expectations of 3.1 per cent and marking the eleventh straight quarter of growth. Seasonally adjusted, GDP rose 0.7 per cent versus Q2.

While goods exports (up 12.2 %) did much of the heavy lifting, officials credited “steady improvement in private consumption” and “sustained growth in inbound tourism” for shoring up domestic demand. Consumption grew 2.1 per cent after dipping early in the year, mirroring the pick-up in visitor arrivals that has filled hotels and revitalised sectors ranging from luxury retail to corporate hospitality.

The data reinforce anecdotal evidence from airlines and trade-show organisers that executive travel and expatriate rotations are resuming. Cathay Pacific reports passenger load factors back above 80 per cent on regional routes, while the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre logged a 40 per cent increase in international delegates between July and September compared with the same period in 2024.

For mobility managers, the stronger macro backdrop means tighter hotel availability during peak fair seasons and rising airfare on core corporate routes such as Singapore, Tokyo and London. Companies should review travel-policy caps and consider advance block bookings for Q1-Q2 2026 assignments.

Looking ahead, the government expects “further solid growth” as global electronics demand supports exports and border-related facilitation—particularly the Southbound Guangdong Vehicle scheme—broadens the visitor mix. Downside risks include geopolitical tensions and sticky interest rates, but barring shocks, mobility flows in and out of Hong Kong are set to stay on an upward trajectory, supporting both leisure and business segments.
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