Data released by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) on 26 October 2025 show 278,900 fewer temporary visas were approved in the first eight months of 2025 versus 2024. Study-permit approvals fell nearly 60 %, while work-permit approvals dropped 56 %. Analysts blame Ottawa’s push to curb temporary-resident levels and an expanded use of the ‘Chinook’ bulk-processing tool, which generates near-identical refusal letters.
Immigration lawyers report a 47 % year-over-year surge in Federal Court judicial-review filings, arguing that template refusals lack individualized reasoning and breach administrative-law standards. The Federal Court has already quashed more than 2,000 refusals in 2025 for “unreasonable” or “procedurally unfair” decisions, forcing IRCC to re-process those files.
Universities warn the trend could cost them C$3 billion in lost tuition next year and jeopardise talent pipelines, especially in STEM programs. Tech employers likewise fear prolonged vacancies as work-permit rejection rates climb. The Council of Canadian Innovators urged IRCC to publish an audit of algorithmic tools and restore officer discretion for complex files.
For mobility managers, the takeaway is to build extra lead-time into 2026 assignment planning, obtain detailed GCMS notes after any refusal, and budget for potential litigation costs. Applicants should also provide stronger ‘temporary intent’ evidence until IRCC clarifies its decision framework.
Parliament’s Standing Committee on Citizenship and Immigration will hold hearings in November, raising the prospect of legislative amendments to govern AI use in immigration processing. Companies that rely heavily on the Temporary Foreign Worker or International Mobility Programs may wish to submit briefs outlining economic impacts.
Immigration lawyers report a 47 % year-over-year surge in Federal Court judicial-review filings, arguing that template refusals lack individualized reasoning and breach administrative-law standards. The Federal Court has already quashed more than 2,000 refusals in 2025 for “unreasonable” or “procedurally unfair” decisions, forcing IRCC to re-process those files.
Universities warn the trend could cost them C$3 billion in lost tuition next year and jeopardise talent pipelines, especially in STEM programs. Tech employers likewise fear prolonged vacancies as work-permit rejection rates climb. The Council of Canadian Innovators urged IRCC to publish an audit of algorithmic tools and restore officer discretion for complex files.
For mobility managers, the takeaway is to build extra lead-time into 2026 assignment planning, obtain detailed GCMS notes after any refusal, and budget for potential litigation costs. Applicants should also provide stronger ‘temporary intent’ evidence until IRCC clarifies its decision framework.
Parliament’s Standing Committee on Citizenship and Immigration will hold hearings in November, raising the prospect of legislative amendments to govern AI use in immigration processing. Companies that rely heavily on the Temporary Foreign Worker or International Mobility Programs may wish to submit briefs outlining economic impacts.
