A new report released by TD Economics has handed federal policy-makers an early report card on their 2024-25 effort to “right-size” immigration. The study—summarised in a CIC News article dated November 1, 2025—shows that the sharp deceleration in both permanent-resident landings and temporary-resident permits is having the intended effect of cooling overheated rental markets and stabilising unemployment.
Background – Last year Ottawa cut its 2025–27 immigration targets by roughly 20 % and, for the first time, set arrival caps for temporary foreign workers and international students. Those measures were paired with new eligibility filters for Post-Graduation Work Permits, spousal open work permits and low-wage Labour-Market Impact Assessments. The goal: give housing supply, public services and the labour market “room to breathe.”
Key findings – Using Statistics Canada data and proprietary housing models, TD’s chief economist Beata Caranci and economist Marc Ercolao estimate that slower population growth has lopped roughly 2 percentage points off forecast rent increases, saving the average renter about CAD 1 100 a year by 2027. On the jobs side, the analysts reckon the unemployment rate would be almost a full point higher—above 8 %—had 2023’s pace of newcomer inflows persisted. Surprisingly, household spending has held up despite fewer newcomers, helped by lower interest rates and Canadians drawing down savings.
![TD Economics finds Canada’s immigration slowdown already easing rents and job-market pressures]()
Business implications – For employers, the report is a mixed bag. Softer labour-force growth eases wage pressure in some sectors but could aggravate skills shortages, especially in health care and construction, once hiring picks up. Real-estate developers, meanwhile, gain a window to add rental supply before demand re-accelerates. Corporations planning intra-company transfers should build longer timelines into staffing models as processing volumes remain capped.
Practical advice – Multinationals with large cohorts of temporary workers or interns should audit upcoming permit expiries and explore permanent-resident pathways early, as competition for the smaller quota of in-Canada transition spots is intensifying. Mobility managers should also revisit housing allowances: TD now projects national rent growth to average 3.5 % instead of 5.5 % over the next two years, with the biggest relief in Ontario and British Columbia.
Big picture – The TD analysis strengthens the government’s hand ahead of the imminent 2026-28 Immigration Levels Plan, arguing that a period of “catch-up” is bearing fruit. It also signals that future increases, when they resume, are likely to be more calibrated and infrastructure-linked than the rapid expansions of 2021-23.
Background – Last year Ottawa cut its 2025–27 immigration targets by roughly 20 % and, for the first time, set arrival caps for temporary foreign workers and international students. Those measures were paired with new eligibility filters for Post-Graduation Work Permits, spousal open work permits and low-wage Labour-Market Impact Assessments. The goal: give housing supply, public services and the labour market “room to breathe.”
Key findings – Using Statistics Canada data and proprietary housing models, TD’s chief economist Beata Caranci and economist Marc Ercolao estimate that slower population growth has lopped roughly 2 percentage points off forecast rent increases, saving the average renter about CAD 1 100 a year by 2027. On the jobs side, the analysts reckon the unemployment rate would be almost a full point higher—above 8 %—had 2023’s pace of newcomer inflows persisted. Surprisingly, household spending has held up despite fewer newcomers, helped by lower interest rates and Canadians drawing down savings.
Business implications – For employers, the report is a mixed bag. Softer labour-force growth eases wage pressure in some sectors but could aggravate skills shortages, especially in health care and construction, once hiring picks up. Real-estate developers, meanwhile, gain a window to add rental supply before demand re-accelerates. Corporations planning intra-company transfers should build longer timelines into staffing models as processing volumes remain capped.
Practical advice – Multinationals with large cohorts of temporary workers or interns should audit upcoming permit expiries and explore permanent-resident pathways early, as competition for the smaller quota of in-Canada transition spots is intensifying. Mobility managers should also revisit housing allowances: TD now projects national rent growth to average 3.5 % instead of 5.5 % over the next two years, with the biggest relief in Ontario and British Columbia.
Big picture – The TD analysis strengthens the government’s hand ahead of the imminent 2026-28 Immigration Levels Plan, arguing that a period of “catch-up” is bearing fruit. It also signals that future increases, when they resume, are likely to be more calibrated and infrastructure-linked than the rapid expansions of 2021-23.
